Scientists have identified systematic meanders in the globe-circling northern jet stream that have caused simultaneous crop-damaging heat waves in widely separated breadbasket regions — a previously unquantified threat to global food production.
The new research shows that certain kinds of waves in the atmospheric circulation can become amplified and then lock in place for extended periods, triggering the concurrent heat waves. Affected parts of North America, Europe and Asia together produce a quarter of the world food supply.
Researchers have identified two wavelengths of meanders in the northern hemisphere jet stream that can cause massive heat waves across several major agricultural regions at once. Top, a wave-7 pattern, which over the past 40 years has hurt crop yields in the red-marked areas of central/west North America, western Europe and western Asia. Bottom, a wave-5 pattern, which has affected central North America, eastern Europe and eastern Asia.
“We found a 20-fold increase in the risk of simultaneous heat waves in major crop-producing regions when these global-scale wind patterns are in place,” said lead author Kai Kornhuber, a postdoctoral researcher at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. “Until now, this was an underexplored vulnerability in the food system. During these events there actually is a global structure in the otherwise quite chaotic circulation. The bell can ring in multiple regions at once.”
Kornhuber warned that the heat waves will almost certainly become worse in coming decades, as the world continues to warm. The meanders that cause them could also potentially become more pronounced, though this is less certain. Because food commodities are increasingly traded on a global scale, either effect could lead to food shortages even in regions far from those directly affected by heat waves.
What is the jet stream?
The jet stream is a fast-moving river of air that continuously circles the northern hemisphere from west to east. It generally confines itself to a relatively narrow band, but can meander north or south, due to a feature scientists call Rossby waves.
Among other effects, these atmospheric wobbles may pull frigid air masses from the polar regions, or hot ones from the subtropics, into the populous midlatitudes. The wobbles strongly influence daily weather. When they become particularly large, they can bring prolonged heat waves, droughts or floods in summer; or in colder seasons, abnormal cold spells.
Because the earth’s atmospheric circulation is so vast and complicated, only in recent years have scientists been able to pick out global patterns in the Rossby waves. The new study builds on previous discoveries of such patterns, and links them to measurable losses in crop production.
Why does the jet stream wobble?
Combing through large amounts of climate data from 1979 to 2018, Kornhuber and colleagues zeroed in on two Rossby waves with specific wavelengths, termed wave-5 and wave-7; that is, north-south wobbles in the jet stream that produce either 5 or 7 peaks and corresponding troughs around the planet’s circumference.
They found that while waves of lower or higher lengths seem to wobble around randomly, wave-5 and wave-7 patterns can lock into a grid of symmetric, often much larger meanders centered over predictable regions. The wave-5 patterns tend to hover over central North America, eastern Europe and eastern Asia; the wave-7 patterns over western-central North America, western Europe and western Asia.
In both cases, the results are the same: hot air swirls up from the south into the peaks, producing abnormal spikes in temperature that can go on for weeks. This in turn reduces rainfall, dries up soils and vegetation, and kills crops in each region.
“Normally, low harvests in one region are expected to be balanced out by good harvests elsewhere,” said study coauthor Dim Coumou of the Institute for Environmental Studies at VU University Amsterdam, who has been studying Rossby waves for years. “These waves can cause reduced harvests in several important breadbaskets simultaneously, creating risks for global food production.”
Food production collapse and human deaths
The scientists showed that in years when these amplified waves occurred during two or more summer weeks, cereal production went down 4 percent when averaged across all the affected regions, and as much as 11 percent in a single affected region. Food-price spikes often followed.
The waves have hit in 1983, 2003, 2006, 2012 and 2018, when many temperature records fell across the United States, Canada, Scandinavia and Siberia. In addition to killing crops, the waves have killed thousands of people, especially in Europe and Russia, where air conditioning is far less common than in North America.
Same pattern in the southern hemisphere?
While the study focuses mainly on hot spells in the Rossby waves’ northern peaks, it also suggests that opposite extremes can occur in the southerly troughs.
A precursor study by Kornhuber and others earlier this year noted that during the 2018 northern heat waves, more southerly regions including the Balkans and Japan saw extraordinary rains and destruction from flooding and landslides. During a 2010 northern heat outbreak in Russia, concurrent flooding on the Indus River in Pakistan displaced millions and destroyed crops.
A creepy future
Many scientists believe that Rossby waves will grow and stall more often as the planet warms. Kornhuber said that this scenario is quite plausible–almost all the global events have occurred since 2000– but that says is not yet enough data to form a consensus on this. Regardless, he said, “even if the frequency or the size of the [Rossby] waves doesn’t change, the heat extremes linked to the patterns will become more severe, because the atmosphere as a whole is heating.”
Our future is bright… Stockpile now before you still have the time… [Nature, Columbia.edu]
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You should really subscribe to QFiles. You will get very interesting information about strange events around the world.
Sounds like Meridional flow versus Zonal flow. Meridional flow exaggerates the curving of the jet stream. Both Zonal and Meridional flow are natural. There does appear to be some evidence that Meridional flow occurs more often during weak solar cycles. The just ended SC24 was weak.
When the jet stream has this exaggerated curve it also slows down its migration across the globe. So the tropical warmth in some areas and the polar cooling in other areas tend to last 6 to 8 weeks compared to the 4 weeks during Zonal flow.
The large curves also increase the length of the boundary between cool and warm air masses increasing the risk of severe weather and that severe weather can occur in places it usually doesn’t.
Basically the Jet Stream is the climate. If it goes up too high in the summer, it brings high heat. If it dips too far south in the winter it brings deep freezes. Now what we need to look at is if Haarp or other countries are manipulating the Jet Stream. Weather warfare is a real thing. They may be manipulating it either to harm other countries agriculture or they maybe doing it to push the climate change narrative to take control over the masses to ‘fix it’.
See, that’s a good hypothesis. ?
Buy Sun Science stamps…
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ALL Corrupted “Science” sucks off the teet of Government leading to False, FAKE, Wrong Info, Lies & “Conclusions”. “Science” = Satan’s “Magic”. Pray to GOD for Real Information. And as another reader commented – the Sun which GOD placed there Millions of years ago RULES OUR ATMOSHPERE & CLIMATE since Before Mankind. But “Scientists” are too Moronic to understand these Simple Concepts.
HAARP anyone?
Not a peep about the Worldwide Geo Engineering activities. Satan’s children at work Agenda to E’ff up Humanity continues. Talmudic’s anyone ??.,
Look up HAARP ionospheric heaters.
Haarp also has a part in this. Check out the story called “why is black rock buying up all the homes” found on this site and you will know why this is happening. Depopulation, the Georgia Guide Stones.
Yes, and it ties into the, you will own nothing, and like it.
Then you are beholden to the satanic feudal Lords. They can shut your power off, turn off your digital currency, spy on your every move, deploy their psychotronic weapons, and control every thing you do. This also fits into the sadomasochistic mindset these disgusting pedosatanists exhibit.
Columbia is a liberal shithole. I call BS.
The EARTH is not warming. It is now in a ‘Maunder Minimum’ that is 6-10% colder than the original.
Buy heavy coats, not crap.
Only a few people have a clue, like you….
hey ding dong bats it the sun, (electromagnetic energy and connections between all things, resulting in lots of stuffffssses including our current pole shift) and it has happened before. Something old something not new something gona bite the earth and everything in it. Better find a cave an take cover, can’t you hear the thunder?, you better run you better take cover!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!