Could California’s Next Big Quake Be “Supershear”? What That Means for Shaking, Damage & Lifelines

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Updated on: · By Strange Sounds

Map of Southern California fault zones showing San Andreas, San Jacinto, Elsinore and Garlock near Los Angeles and San Diego
The next earthquake in California could be a dramatic supershear earthquake. Major fault zones in Southern California, including the San Andreas, San Jacinto, Elsinore and Garlock systems.

TL;DR: Supershear earthquakes occur when the rupture outruns shear waves, creating a shock-front “double strike” (a sonic-boom-like jolt followed by prolonged shaking). Experts warn such a scenario is plausible on California’s long strike-slip faults (e.g., San Andreas, San Jacinto). Consequences: stronger, longer shaking, wider impact, and potential disruptions to power, water, transport, and communications.

What Is a Supershear Earthquake?

In a supershear event, the rupture front on a fault exceeds the speed of local S-waves. Energy bunches up into a shock front, delivering an intense initial jolt—then the ongoing rupture drives prolonged shaking. This “double strike” can be more damaging than in typical quakes of the same magnitude.

Why Experts Are Concerned About California

How Supershear Changes the Shaking You Feel

Supershear earthquakes can amplify motion in the 2–3 Hz range—especially hazardous for short- to mid-rise buildings and stiff infrastructure. Because the rupture moves so fast, the damage footprint may be longer and wider along the fault trace than in conventional events.

Critical Lifelines at Risk

Engineers warn of cascading failures: power grids, pipelines, transport corridors, and telecom/Internet could suffer multi-day outages. Route redundancy and rapid damage assessment plans matter as much as building strength.

Building Codes & Preparedness

  • Scenario modeling: Run M7+ supershear simulations on major faults to map shaking intensity and directionality.
  • Design checks: Evaluate parallel-to-fault ground motion demands and pounding risks for mid-rise stock.
  • Monitoring: Expand near-fault arrays to capture high-frequency pulses and shock fronts.
  • Lifeline resilience: Harden substations, bridges, aqueducts; plan reroutes and spares.
  • Public readiness: Refresh “Drop, Cover, Hold On” drills; stock water, power banks, and radios.

FAQs

How rare are supershear earthquakes?

They’re uncommon globally but more likely on long strike-slip faults. A significant fraction of historical M7+ strike-slip events show supershear segments.

Does supershear always happen along the whole fault?

No. Ruptures can be partly supershear—certain segments accelerate above S-wave speed while others remain subshear.

Would current codes protect buildings?

Modern codes greatly reduce collapse risk, but directional pulses and the double-strike effect raise demands on many short- to mid-rise structures and stiff infrastructure.

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