Here’s the 2020 US election result if polls are as wrong as they were in 2016

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trump vs biden 2016 errors for 2020 presidential election shows a Trump win, trump wins election against biden, biden trump poll results 2020
The US presidential election 2020 between Trump and Biden is as tight as in 2016.

While very fluid, we can track the latest results of the electronic prediction markets and polling data.

PredictIt currently has a 65% chance for a Biden victory. This is up from a week ago at 62.9% and also higher than four weeks ago.

As usual one has to be aware of just how little capital needs to be deployed to manipulate the illiquid PredictIt market.

A Trump victory has a roughly 41% probability according to this data, which is up slightly from 37.1% a week ago.

The national polls – compiled by Real Clear Politics – suggest a similar tilt in the race with Biden having a 51.3%-43.5% lead against Trump.

rcp polls results 2020, rcp polls results 2020 biden trump, election polls result 2020
rcp polls results 2020

So according to these first analyses, Biden currently leads in all the battleground, or “toss up” states except for Ohio, Arizona and Texas. This would give him a comfortable Electoral College (EC) victory of 346-192…

US presidential election, trump biden poll resulsts, us election polls
All polls show that Biden will win 202 presidential election easily.

But the popularity of Biden seems to decrease in new RCP’s average polls of Top Battleground states (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ), falling down to +3.1 and with Arizona just flipping to Trump in the past 24 hours.

US presidential election, trump biden poll resulsts, us election polls
New polls show that Trump is coming closer to Biden in the last days of the US presidential election.

Polls are imperfect

2016 showed that poll results are imperfect.

Now, if we apply the polling miss from 2016 as Bank of America did last week, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Iowa and and Maine would flip. For this exercise we have used the latest RCP polling average data as of Oct 31:

These numbers were then adjusted by applying the same error rates as were observed during the 2016 polling, and the results are shown in the table below:

trump vs biden 2016 errors for 2020 presidential election shows a Trump win, trump wins election against biden, biden trump poll results 2020
Trump wins 2020 presidential election if we take the same uncertainty as during 2016 election.

Remarkably, if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump would win with 279 of the 538 electoral votes, while Biden would get 259.

Recount, delays, contested outcomes

The margin of victory would be within 0.5 percentage points in Wisconsin (for Biden) and Georgia (for Trump), which would trigger an automatic recount and delay results.

In addition, the margin in Pennsylvania and Florida would be less than 1.0%, likely resulting in a bitter post-election night fight and contested outcomes.

Putting this together, Bloomberg said it best: All of that means a Trump win on Tuesday would represent a historically staggering failure by public opinion polls, eclipsing even the 2016 miss. While the president’s chances of being re-elected aren’t zero, pollsters say it’s a long shot.

In short, no matter what happens on Nov 3, expect recounts and extensive delays before we have a clear winner.

More US presidential election news on Zero Edge, Strange Sounds and Steve Quayle.

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3 COMMENTS

  1. I did predicted that PR Donald Trump will fire scarf lady and DR Fauci months ago and documented.

    Trump hints that he could FIRE Dr. Fauci after the election as Florida crowd chant ‘Fire Fauci’ during his campaign rally .
    We predict with high accuracy do it for humanity. The scarf lady is also next in the line of fire or she will quit!
    Disclaimer always apply

  2. Turkey helped Azerbaijan attack Christian Nation of Armenia , then God revenge with 7.1 quake close in between Greece and Turkey and many people died from Turkish side. Can you keep this picture for me is better. Thanks alot to Strange sounds i hope you also sell Black seeds and oil and also Fenugreek for health.
    Soon i will give you a device came and you can be representive of it anti Covid 20 disinfection anf ilter air . I will tell you later on.

  3. Well , we have to pray and vote who ever you think is the best for the country. We can not say vote for whom , just hope for the best indeed.

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