Hurricane Elsa is going to Disney World! How many more buildings are going to collapse in Florida?

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Hurricane Elsa, Hurricane Elsa July 2021, Hurricane Elsa is going to Disney World Florida in July 2021
Hurricane Elsa is going to Disney World Florida in July 2021. Picture via Twitter

Elsa has become the first hurricane on the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane Elsa will barrel into the Caribbean Friday, where warnings have been issued for the Windward Islands.

Residents of the Caribbean and Florida should track the progress of Elsa closely through the holiday weekend.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Elsa was centered about 40 mph miles west of Barbados as of Friday morning. A sustained wind of 74 mph and gust of 86 mph was measured on Barbados early Friday.

Current Alerts

A hurricane warning has been issued for Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines and St. Lucia. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected in the warning area in the next few hours.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Windward Islands, where tropical storm force conditions (winds of at least 39 mph) are expected on Friday.

A tropical storm warning has also been issued for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and portions of Haiti where tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday.

A hurricane watch has also been posted for the southern portion of Haiti. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible and are typically issued 48 hours before tropical storm force winds are expected to begin.

Tropical storm watches have been issued for Jamaica, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible here this weekend.

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(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)

Forecast Details

Elsa is tracking quickly westward at 28 mph. The quick forward speed should limit rainfall totals.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

The NHC says rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals up to 10 inches are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands Friday. This could lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. That said, the system’s fast forward speed will limit the heavy rain threat that might otherwise be greater.

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Current Status and Forecast Path(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

Elsa will then move across the central and western Caribbean over the weekend. Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba might see heavy rainfall and strong winds from this system during that time. Puerto Rico may receive 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with localized amounts of 5 inches Friday into Saturday.

As this system moves through or past Hispaniola, it could bring heavy rainfall and storm surge to the island. Up to a foot of rain could fall in southern Haiti, with much of the southern portions of the country picking up 4 to 8 inches.

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(Locally higher amounts are possible.)

Forecast Uncertainty

Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico are included in the long-range forecast path from the NHC, however, it’s not certain what, if any, impacts it might bring to these areas early next week.

That’s because there are some important forecast factors yet to come into focus once this system tracks into the Caribbean that will influence its future.

One of those is how much land interaction with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and/or Cuba there will be to possibly weaken this system over the holiday weekend. Too much land interaction could disrupt Elsa enough and prevent it from staying intact past the Caribbean.

Elsa’s rather fast westward movement could also prevent it from strengthening too quickly in the near-term future as tracks into the Caribbean.

Another large uncertainty is when and how sharp the system is expected to reach the edge of the Bermuda High that is shoving Elsa westward. When Elsa reaches that edge, it will make a northwestward turn at some point later this weekend and early next week. A faster forward speed in the near-term will mean that this turn will also turn earlier.

The range of outcomes spans from a sooner, sharper northwest then north then northeast turn, recurving well off the Southeast coast to a much more gentle, subtle, late northwest turn into the Gulf of Mexico.

If Elsa tracks toward Florida, later Monday or Tuesday appears to be the earliest this system could impact parts of South Florida. Right now, Elsa is expected to increase the amount of thunderstorm activity in Florida during this time.

Check back to weather.com for updates over the next few days as the forecast uncertainty is narrowed down.

Elsa is the earliest Forming Fifth Named Storm

Elsa is the earliest forming fifth named Atlantic storm on record in the satellite era (since 1966). The old record was held by Edouard, which developed a year ago on the evening of July 5.

The name Elsa is new to the list of rotating names being used this season. This year’s list was last used in 2015, but Erika was the “E” storm that year.

Erika was retired after it caused deadly and destructive flooding in the Caribbean Island of Dominica. Elsa replaced it. [weather]

How many buildings are going to collapse after Hurricane Elsa sweeps across Florida?

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7 Comments

  2. Seldom if ever does a hurricane of such intensity start up out of nowhere unless there is some kind of Global Climate Change from an over-abundance of man made CO2 in the atmosphere churning it up and resulting in these enormous disasters.

    This is too monumental for mankind to ignore and something must be done before it gets worse to the point of being impossible to repair.

    The United States under our current leadership in the White House and Congress needs to contact the United Nations on the matter of Global Climate Change and request that the UN take control of all US business, economic, transportation and manufacturing industries, worldwide, and using tax funds these corporations must be made to pay, for the UN to then cut out our level of CO2 emissions worldwide to as close to zero as possible.

    Once the US shows its willingness to go green in order to save the world’s fragile climate, then other nations will begin to request the United Nation’s help to do the same.

    We will need a strong, intelligent, likable and humanitarian leader similar to how our former President Obama was, to be willing to take over the UN’s central leadership position so that they can coordinate this cleansing of Mother Earth equitably worldwide.

    If we can accomplish this goal within the next one or two years at most, then we can expect not only a greener cleaner climate, but we can also expect more equality and government enforced freedoms than we ever had in all of history.

    We will have good health in particular become guaranteed as the most important right of all, as free medical care and timely vaccination scheduling for each citizen of the world, becomes normal within each of our lifetimes, to live to see accomplished and for our children to be forever grateful.

    • Such intensity? Out of nowhere? It’s a category 1 , during hurricane season. Hurricanes happen every year and have been even before the gasoline engine. Get some perspective and realize the climate has always changed and lose some arrogance thinking humans have ultimate control. There is this thing called the Sun that goes through cycles that are way more complex than we know. You tipped your hand and showed your “globalist” agenda, going from Hurricanes to vaccinations and UN led global government. The true agenda of the man made climate change crock of shit theory

  3. Yeah every year the weather changes. Sometimes we get tropical storms and hurricanes earlier than expected.
    At least they don’t try and push the globull warming baloney.
    We are getting monsoons up in the mountains now. Same as it was the last six years. Same patterns. Nothing remarkable or unusual. Sometimes it’s a week earlier, and sometimes it’s week or two later. No big deal. Nothing to panic about. Weather patterns and cycles change on a routine basis. It is normal.

    The media buttclowns will hype the hurricane season same as they do every year. Then they will bring in some so-called expert, and spin the hurricane season into something inane to panic people. Very predictable stupidity.

    • Anybody else wondering if somebody in that condo/building collapse was a target? Heard some reports on the collapse starting in the underground parking area.

      The news on the body count has been fluctuating.

      Even when planes go down, I am always curious of the names on the flight manifest.

      Sounds cynical, but hey we have some genuine dirtbags running the country. Both sides of the aisle too!

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