After biblical locust plagues Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya face devastating drought as the next rainy season in East Africa is forecast to fail, jeopardizing food security for millions of people

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drought east africa 2020, drought east africa 2020 forecast, drought east africa 2020 map
Average October to December rainfall performance in years with similar climate drivers, shown as a percent of the 1981 to 2010 average. Source: FEWS NET

Every five or so years, it rips me apart to watch the same tragedy: a La Niña weather cycle brings devastating drought and hunger to East Africa, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya.

Using climate models and Earth observations, we can now predict these droughts. And once again, dry conditions are predicted from this month until December, with a very good chance of another poor rainy season in March to May 2021.

Advances in predictive science allow us to anticipate these potential crises. Scientists issued alerts in August. East African climate experts used a new modelling system for their pessimistic forecast.

In the United States, I was part of a group of climate scientists and humanitarian agencies that raised the alarm, through the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.

drought east africa 2020, drought east africa 2020 forecast, drought east africa 2020 map
Rainfall forecast Oct.-Dec. 2020 East Africa.

But past experience makes us worry that some governments might not react quickly enough to prevent impacts such as food shortages and even famine.

The timing could not be worse. The region is more precarious than ever — destabilized by COVID-19 and the worst devastation from locusts in half a century.

This year’s response must be different. Governments and agencies have weeks to plan how to alleviate the worst consequences of the drought, and months to prepare for 2021.

How firm is the drought prediction? Very. Almost all forecast models and climate agencies anticipate lower-than-normal rainfall between October and December. My group puts the chance at about 80%. Poor rains in March to May 2021 also seem likely. Of course, there’s uncertainty. But that shouldn’t prevent action. Forewarned is forearmed.

Responders can be proactive in setting aside resources, developing contingency plans and pre-positioning assistance where weather models and satellite observations suggest it will be needed most.

drought east africa 2020, drought east africa 2020 forecast, drought east africa 2020 map
Temperature forecast Oct.-Dec. 2020 East Africa.

Recent harvests have been good, so it might be possible to lay up stores of grain that will be crucial to avoiding food-price spikes of the kind seen in 2010–11, which led to famine in Somalia and social unrest that triggered the Arab Spring.

Combating poverty is going to be especially important this year, given that COVID-19 has slashed people’s incomes. According to the World Development Indicators, the poorest 20% of Ethiopians subsist on around US$250 a year, which is less than one-hundredth of the median income per person in the United States.

Many are itinerant pastoralists who roam as they raise herds in dry eastern portions of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. In good years, these animals eat sparse vegetation in dry areas. These herds represent a way out of poverty. But they can be wiped out by a series of droughts. Cattle die and life-sustaining milk supplies dry up just as food prices spike.

I’ve seen this unfold twice in the past ten years, despite early warning and drought forecasts (see C. Funk Nature 476, 7; 2011). In 2010–11, around 260,000 Somalians were killed through starvation when two consecutive rainy seasons failed. One in ten children under five died in the south of the country.

In 2016–17, back-to-back droughts, predicted by climatologists, struck again. Poor harvests led to lost revenues and a sixfold spike in the number of food-insecure people. Across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, more than 12 million people were in desperate need of humanitarian assistance.

Concern led me to start blogging forecasts to get the word out. I still recall one report shared by sustainability consultant James Firebrace about livestock deaths in Somalia on 3 December 2016.

He e-mailed from the field: “I’d estimate a rough average of 70% losses across all the interviews I’ve made, while many have already lost everything. Surviving animals now too weak to move long distances without water, and few now have the funds to pay for them to be trucked (and for the moment nowhere to go anyway).

Conditions on the ground can deteriorate quickly. Today’s climate-model forecasts look a lot like they did in mid-2016 — La Niña conditions are associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. But around Indonesia, the seas are very warm. That combination is drying East Africa.

If governments don’t take note, however, all the data collection and modelling is for nothing. Few nations in eastern and southern Africa use drought predictions adequately. For example, when El Niño-related drought was forecast in September 2015, it was ten months before an emergency was declared.

In my career, I’ve learnt three things.

First, monitoring and announcing the arrival of dry spells is not enough, and hindsight allows us to respond, but not prepare. Observations and forecasts need to go hand in hand.

Second, how researchers communicate is incredibly important. Earth scientists have to repeat, escalate and refine messages from, for example, ‘we think it might be bad’ to ‘it’s really bad at this location’.

Third, droughts are complex, so providing effective early warning involves expertise across many disciplines: climate modelling, forecasting, remote sensing and crop modelling.

But tremendous progress is being made, for instance, by East African groups such as ICPAC (a climate centre accredited by the World Meteorological Organization), the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, and the Kenyan and Ethiopian meteorological agencies.

In a region pummelled by extreme weather, they and others are providing actionable information that can save lives and livelihoods. But only if people pay attention.

More news about the collapse of civilisation on Nature, Strange Sounds and Steve Quayle.

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4 COMMENTS

  1. Black Seed Oil In The Bible – “Black Healing Seeds”
    Black seed oil in the Bible?

    Where does it come from, and what is black seed oil used for? Black and crescent-shaped, these seeds are native to Egypt and are widely used in India and the countries of the Middle East, where they are also called Habbat al Barakah “blessed seed.” In the Islamic world, it is believed that they cure any type of disease except death, and in the Bible, they appear as “black healing seeds.” Although cumin is used in the West, and black cumin is well known, black cumin seeds are very different from the cumin we know.

    What are its therapeutic properties?
    Stomach problems

    It is excellent for healing stomach related issues. From consuming it after a heavy meal to stomach disorders such as constipation, flatulence, it dramatically facilitates digestion and kills intestinal worms.
    Pancreatic cancer

    It has just been known in a recent investigation that black cumin seed oil is successful in the treatment of pancreatic cancer, one of the hardest types of cancer; the seeds are useful in the procedure in the early stages of disease.
    Immunity and energy

    Seeds have the power to provide immunity to the body. They induce bone marrow production and help develop immune cells in the body. They help recover from fatigue and stimulate new energy in the body. They are prescribed to people who have problems with the immunity system.

    Some Ayurvedic doctors use cumin seeds in combination with garlic. This is done to bring harmony in the body and prevent immune cells from being destroyed.
    Skin problems

    The oil has been used since ancient times to treat skin disorders such as psoriasis, acne, allergies, burns, rashes, etc.
    Respiratory disorders

    They are awarded the power to cure diseases that arise due to respiratory disorders. They can cure the problems of cold, asthma, bronchitis.
    The increase in breast milk

    The seeds have the property of increasing the production of breast milk for the feeding of babies.
    Cough and asthma

    For immediate relief, you can chew some black cumin seeds. Hot drinks made from cumin seeds are very good, and you can also consume the powder of the seeds together with honey or apply hot black cumin seed oil on the chest and back or boil water add a tablespoon of seeds and inhale the steam
    Headaches

    Black cumin oil can be applied to the head and nose, finding great relief from migraines and severe headaches.
    Toothache

    Mixing the seed oil with warm water and gargling relieves the toothache quickly.
    Preventive use for well-being and defenses

    The seeds can be consumed for general well-being and to increase the body’s resistance and immunity power. Grind the seeds into a fine powder. Mix with honey half an hour before breakfast and consume it.

    Also, in terms of beauty, these fantastic seeds have many other powers, such as strengthening hair and nails, giving them a bright appearance. They have been used by some queens and empresses in their aesthetic care since ancient times. Some people consume the oil in capsule form for a few months, and others prefer to apply the oil on the body and especially on the nails and hair.
    Scientific reality:

    For more than two thousand years, the black seed of the Neguilla has been used in many countries of the Middle East or the Far East, as natural medicine. In 1959 Al-dakhakhny and his group extracted the Nigellone from their oil. The black seed of the Neguilla contains up to 40% of its weight in essential oil and 1.4% in the volatile oil. It also includes fifteen amino acids, proteins, calcium, iron, sodium, and potassium. Among its most active compounds are thymoquinone, dicimoquinone, cymo hydroquinone, and thymol.

    In 1986, thanks to the research of Professor Al-kady and his group, which took place in the US, the active role that black seed plays in increasing immunity was discovered. Subsequently, in many countries, numerous research works were carried out on this plant. The Kady demonstrated that the use of black seed strengthens the immune system; it increases the amount of T lymphatic cells that help with suppressors by 72%. A 74% improvement in the activity of natural killer cells has been noted. Some recent studies gave the same results that Dr.

    Al-kady arrived. Among these investigations, it is worth highlighting what the magazine Al-Namaha al-Sawaya (Pharmaceutical Immunity) published in August 1995, on the effect that the black seed of the Neguilla has on human lymphatic cells. He also announced in September 2000 a study, experienced in mice, on the preventive effect of black seed oil against cytomegalovirus. This oil has been experienced as an antivirus, and the immunity acquired during the early stage of infection has been measured by determining the natural killer cells.

    In October 1999, the Western Cancer magazine published a paper on the effect of the substance thymoquinone on intestinal cancer in mice.

    In April 2000, the medical journal Ethanol published an article on the toxic and immunological effects of ethanol extracted from this seed.

    In February 1995, the journal Medicinal Plants published a study of the effect of fixed oil in Neguilla and the substance of thymoquinone on white blood cells. In this area, there are many works supporting these results.
    Nature of the miracle:

    The prophet reported that black seed is a cure for all diseases. In the other hadiths related to this matter, the word Chifaa (priest) has been revealed without the determined article, in affirmative style, therefore it is an indefinite word that does not imply any generality. Consequently, it can be said that in this seed there is a high percentage of medicinal substances for all diseases.

    It is demonstrated that the immune system is the only one that has the ability to fight diseases due to the acquired immune system that can constitute particular antibodies for each disease-causing being, and create individual killer cells.

    Through the investigations conducted on the effects of the Neguilla, it has been shown that its seed activates the acquired immunity since it raised the number of natural killer cells, suppressors and cells – all of them are very special and precise cells – even in an Approximately 75%, according to El-kady.

    Such conclusions were supported by research published in other journals; as an improvement in the function of lymphatic cells was noted, the substance of interferon and interleukin 1 and 2 was increased, and development in cellular immunity. This immune system improvement comes from the destructive effect of black seed extract against cancer cells and some viruses. In turn, it improves the impact of bilharziasis.

    Therefore, we can conclude that in the seed of the Neguilla there is a remedy for each disease because it repairs and strengthens the immune system whose responsibility is to cure diseases and fight viruses. This system interacts with the causes of the disease by offering a complete or partial medication for each.

    Such scientific facts included in the hadith of the Prophet have been revealed. Muhammad transmitted this reality to us fourteen centuries ago, so no human being, except a prophet, can claim the merit of showing such facts. The Koran says of him [3]: “He does not speak on his own impulse. It is not [4] but a revelation that has been made [5]. ”The Star, verses 3 and 4.

    [1] Its scientific name is Neguilla Sativa.

    [2] Both ulemas collected the correct hadiths (sayings, facts, and decisions of the prophet) in two books; the first is titled Sahih Albujary, and the other, Sahih Muslim, which is the best of the compiled books.

    [3] Muhammad.

    [4] What Muhammad preaches.

    [5] The Quran has been revealed.
    DISCLAIMER ALWAYS APPLY.
    Since 2 weeks ago i took black seeds and oil i feel great i do not take Insulin any more and i do not take BP medications any more and my Asthma got better using less inhalers in BC .Stay tuned further for the more medications come out slowly.
    Thanks a for Bible shows the way.

  2. As we predicted world martial law is in full progress and new African nation Nigeria is in full Martial law.
    Hundreds of demonstrators have marched in the Algerian capital, Algiers, to mark the 32nd anniversary of a pro-democracy movement and renew calls for political change.

    The rally on Monday came just two days before the beginning of campaigning for a November 1 referendum on a new constitution that President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has insisted will usher in a new for the North African country.

    Protests first erupted in cities across the country in February 2019 to reject former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s plan to seek a fifth term in office. The demonstrations intensified even after the wheelchair-bound octogenarian leader resigned in April last year under pressure by the powerful military, demanding the departure of the entire state apparatus, widely seen as inept and corrupt.

    Demands by the anti-establishment Hirak protest movement for a vote to elect a constituent assembly that would then draft a new constitution largely went unanswered, with the army pressing ahead with a contentious vote that Tebboune – seen by many as the military’s candidate – won in a landslide.

    In March, the government banned street protests, saying the move was necessary to combat the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

  3. Those have hears will hear you , those who do not have hears will not hear you. Quotation from Bible.
    We are always 100 percent agree with your news global famine, World War 3 and Ebola, and COVID20, and shortages of water.
    Those who are Prepare Prepare that is only way do not use your extra 1200 dollars check may come soon,do not buy junks beers now, is time to buy super foods and food security. If anything remains you can buy your beers and Putin Vodka to keep you warm.
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 02:25:45 UTC 64 km SE of Pope-Vannoy Landing, Alaska 1.6 16.8 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 02:22:06 UTC 110 km SSE of Sand Point, Alaska 3.6 19.2 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 02:18:33 UTC 1km ENE of Hollister, CA 1.7 8.8 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 02:15:53 UTC 207 km E of Levuka, Fiji 4.5 544.4 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 02:10:48 UTC 50 km SSE of Denali National Park, Alaska 1.8 2.2 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 02:05:26 UTC 115 km SSE of Sand Point, Alaska 3.4 24.9 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 02:00:25 UTC South Shetland Islands 5.1 8.6 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 01:58:48 UTC 95 km SSE of Sand Point, Alaska 3.8 21.3 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 01:50:49 UTC 12km SW of Searles Valley, CA 0.5 9.4 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 01:45:19 UTC 123 km SSE of Sand Point, Alaska 2.5 18.5 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 01:45:19 UTC 123 km SSE of Sand Point, Alaska 2.5 18.5 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 01:45:16 UTC 141 km SSE of Sand Point, Alaska 3.4 23.0 USGS Feed Detail
    Wednesday October 21 2020, 01:38:22 UTC 4km S of Brentwood, CA 1.8 1.6 USGS Feed
    Mega quakes coming Vancouver Canada to San Diego will be shaking ? With San Madrid as well? Enemies within USA and without will strike USA if we get weaker, we ask all to be clam let us make USA great without clashes?

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