On May 29th (1437 UT), old sunspot AR3664 produced an X1.4-class solar flare:

solar storm - CME - may 31-june 1
solar storm – CME – may 31-june 1

A pulse of extreme ultraviolet radiation produced a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for 60 to 90 minutes following the onset of the flare.

blackout map May 30 2024; Full on US
blackout map May 30 2024; Full on US

This explosion was remarkable for its duration. The X-class phase alone lasted more than an hour–plenty of time to lift a CME out of the sun’s atmosphere.

Indeed, SOHO coronagraphs have detected a bright CME emerging from the blast site. NOAA models suggest it will reach Earth during the late hours of May 31st (around 2200 UT), delivering a glancing blow strong enough to spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm…

CME May 30-31 solar eruption
CME May 30-31 solar eruption

G2-class geomagnetic storms

NOAA forecasters say that G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible on May 31st when the above CME is expected to graze Earth’s magnetic field. Again, that CME was hurled into space by an X1.4-flare on May 29th.

This forecast is uncertain:

NOAA’s model predicts a stiff glancing blow:

NOAA CME forecast May31-June 1
NOAA CME forecast May31-June 1

NASA’s model suggests a near miss:

NASA CME forecast May31-June 1
NASA CME forecast May31-June 1

If an impact does occur, the resulting storm could extend into June 1st.

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